Abstract:
This dataset is based on the accompanying dataset "Oyster Flows Salinity Model Input Data - Historic Sea Level Scenario" (GRIIDC dataset H4.x955.000:0001, DOI: https://doi.org/10.7266/48cfe02r). Input values were adjusted from historic conditions to represent future values where estimates are available. This primarily includes accounting for the effects of climate change and sea level rise. Water levels were adjusted by adding expected sea level rise by 2050 to historic values. Temperature was adjusted by adding expected mean temperature increases by 2050 to historic values. Precipitation and streamflow estimates from the WaterFALL model were developed using downscaled CMIP6 projections over the affected watersheds. Future Bonnet Carre spillway releases were estimated by applying historic operations logic to future projected Mississippi river flows. Wind speed was not adjusted to reflect future conditions as no estimates of change were available. Salinity values are predicted in the model and are not used from the future dataset.
Inputs reflecting baseline conditions are available in GRIIDC dataset H4.x955.000:0001 (https://doi.org/10.7266/48cfe02r). The major spatial components of the Oyster Flows project (watersheds, streamlines, modeled prediction points) are available in H4.x955.000:0003 (https://doi.org/10.7266/hdyw1arv).
Suggested Citation:
Gross, Shannon, Benjamin Lord, and Michele Eddy. 2024. OysterFlows salinity model input data, future climate scenario. Distributed by: GRIIDC, Harte Research Institute, Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi. doi:10.7266/gk811kb9
Purpose:
This dataset represents conditions in the year 2050 as an input to a statistical model predicting salinity as a surrogate for oyster health in Calcasieu Lake, Sabine Lake, and the Mississippi Sound.
Data Parameters and Units:
Gauge height/water elevation [feet], water temperature [degrees Celsius], salinity [unitless], modeled river outflow [m^3/day], wind speed [m/s], Bonnet Carre post variables [unitless lag parameter].
Methods:
This primarily accounts for the effects of climate change and sea level rise. Water levels were adjusted by adding expected sea level rise by 2050 to historic values. Temperature was adjusted by adding expected mean temperature increases by 2050 to historic values. Precipitation and streamflow estimates from the WaterFALL model were developed using downscaled CMIP6 projections over the affected watersheds. Future Bonnet Carre spillway releases were estimated by applying historic operations logic to future projected Mississippi river flows. When sub-daily data was available, values were summarized as daily averages. Missing data is noted with -999.
Provenance and Historical References:
Eddy, M. C., Lord, B., Perrot, D., Bower, L. M., & Peoples, B. K. (2022). Predictability of flow metrics calculated using a distributed hydrologic model across ecoregions and stream classes: implications for developing flow-ecology relationships. Ecohydrology, 15(2), e2387. https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.2387
Eddy, M. C., Moreda, F. G., Dykes, R. M., Bergenroth, B., Parks, A., & Rineer, J. (2017). The Watershed Flow and Allocation Model: An NHDPlus-based watershed modeling approach for multiple scales and conditions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 53(1), 6–29. https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12496
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